Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox looks into the stands

The Braves begin a series with the Phillies tonight and look to continue to make things interesting in the wild card and divisional races. But whether or not the Braves make the playoffs, next year looks to be an interesting year. With Bobby Cox talking about retiring and Chipper Jones sitting out during the stretch run, this is clearly Brian McCann’s team. Chipper Jones has never been the type of leader the braves need since the removal of Smoltz, Maddux, Glavine and others. Chipper’s value is in his experience and knowledge of the game, but his leadership skills are average at best. McCann has the ability to have a positive affect on the team and has a positive attitude unlike Chipper at times. What if Bobby Cox was to retire would the Braves look to bring Ned Yost back or higher from within? Bobby Cox is a great manager and can still motivate professional athletes but the Braves need a player to help motivate the team sometimes and the outspoken McCann will propel this team forward next year

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sutton

I am convinced Don Sutton should be named the Major League Baseball Commissioner on Pitching. If not that, pitchers, pitching coaches and managers – probably GMs too – should ask the Braves’ broadcaster a lot of questions and then pay close attention to his answers.

Everyone knows Sutton is a Hall of Famer, but his 324 wins, 4,692 strikeouts and 3.26 career earned run average have nothing to do with why baseball people should sit up and take notice when he waxes on the art of pitching and also pry every pitching tidbit they can from him. It’s his knowledge, not just about pitching mechanics, but about what it takes to be a Standout Starter.

Not simply a Quality Starter (as in quality start). While the above numbers are fantastic, equally impressive in today’s Pampered Pitcher Era are the 32 starts and 230 innings Sutton averaged over 23 seasons. That’s averaged, mind you. He even started 34 games in back-to-back seasons, working at least 191 innings in each of them, when he was 41 and 42 years of age.

He was durable. Perhaps more importantly, he was given the chance to be durable. He did not come out of a game every time he approached 100 pitches and he did not miss a turn if his shoulder felt a little sore.

Sutton was never on the disabled list. He would probably be excommunicated from the modern-day pitcher’s union for that.

I like what Sutton has to say about expectations. Using the example of telling a child that C’s are fine – and C’s would likely be what the child would produce – he pointed out that young pitchers are not challenged to extend themselves.

“We are encouraging mediocrity,” he said, “and being very successful at it.”

Sutton also said the 100-pitch limit conditions pitchers “to feel fatigued” based on a pre-determined barrier established by others, and he called the quality start “a ridiculous and absurd” statistic that rewards a 4.50 ERA (six innings and three or fewer runs).

He, along with other former big league pitchers, questions the way today’s young hurlers are babied with the goal of protecting precious arms, wondering why so many of those pitchers spend so much time on the DL. Sutton has much more to say about pitching and the treatment of pitchers. He makes good sense, and it seems like it would make good sense for baseball people to listen to him.

In fact, it’s hard to understand why more so-called “old-timers” are not conferred with about pitching. They did not abide by today’s training practices, and yet, very few of them encountered the physical problems of a large number of modern pitchers.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if one or two clubs tried things the old-fashioned way for a year or two. The hurlers’ MASH roster and the diminished returns from pitchers could not be any worse. Pitchers might even find they, too, can last longer than six innings and maybe even throw a complete game every now and then.

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Speculation has been rampant this week about the future of Bobby Cox. Cox told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman that he’s not ready to commit for next season. It would be his 25th season as the Braves skipper. If he’s not ready to commit for 2010 now, he should hang up his spikes. Yes, Bobby still wears spikes.

Next season promises to be an improvement over 2009 for several reasons:

1. The starting rotation will be the best in the N.L. from spots 1-5.

Frank Wren has the luxury of 6 solid major league starters for five spots allowing him the ability to trade one of them for a needed offensive piece. Javier Vazquez (3.01 ERA, 216 Ks in 197.1 IP) and Jair Jurrjens (2.81 ERA) have been throwing lights out this season, but their records (13-9 and 11-10 respectively) reflect their lack of run support. Tim Hudson (1-0, 3.63 ERA) has looked good in his early starts after returning from Tommy John surgery. Tommy Hanson (10-3, 2.65 ERA) has been ridiculously good since his mid-season call-up, and Kenshin Kawakami (7-11, 4.02 ERA) appears to have settled into the American version of the game. The only pitcher to not meet or exceed expectations has been Derek Lowe (14-9, 4.53 ERA).

2. The offense should be better next season.

Obviously, the Braves priority this off-season will be to find a big bat to play first base or left field. Re-signing Adam LaRoche would not count in my opinion. While he has been awesome in his return to the Braves (.344, 12 HR, 30 RBI in 41 games), I think he’s playing above his head. That is not to say that I don’t want the team to re-sign him. It’s just that I don’t consider him the big bat the Braves need. They need someone who can hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110+ runs in the middle of their lineup.

Chipper Jones (.269, 16 HR, 64 RBI) should have a bounce back season next year. He has already stated that he knows what to work on during the off-season, so I expect him to get back to his .300, 20+ homers, and 90+ RBI numbers.

Brian McCann (.281, 18 HR, 80 RBI) has suffered a little from overuse this season. With some additional offense in the lineup, perhaps Bobby Cox (or whoever the manager is) won’t feel the need to run McCann out there everyday. McCann should get more consistent off days and take advantage of what David Ross gives them offensively (.258, 7 HR, 18 RBI, .500 SLG).

Yunel Escobar (.301, 14 HR, 68 RBI) should improve with an additional year of maturity as he is clearly becoming one of the best overall shortstops in the National League.

The outfield offense should also improve over the 2009 version. A full season of Nate McLouth (.283, 9 HR, 31 RBI as a Brave) in centerfield will be a definite improvement over the McLouth/Jordan Schafer (.204, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 63 Ks in 167 ABs) combination of 2009. The rightfielder for the 2010 Braves will be Jason Heyward (.323, 17 HR, 63 RBI in 99 minor league games). The only question is when. Leftfield also remains a question mark. I don’t think Garret Anderson (.275, 12 HR, 54 RBI) will be back. I also doubt that Jordan Schafer will be in the Braves outfield picture at the start of the season as he recovers from wrist surgery. I look for Matt Diaz (.320, 10 HR, 48 RBI) to be back in Atlanta, but probably not Ryan Church (.260, 2 HR, 18 RBI as a Brave) who could get a salary in excess of $4 million in arbitration next season.

I expect that Martin Prado (.291, 9 HR, 42 RBI) will be the full-time second baseman in 2010, as he has clearly outhit Kelly Johnson for three seasons now.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic as the Braves look to 2010. So if Bobby Cox isn’t excited to lead this team going forward, it’s time for him to go.

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As Chipper Jones struggles to locate his stroke, the Braves continue to struggle for offensive consistency. Chipper is now hitting .269 for the season or a whopping 95 points below his league leading average from one year ago. Not only is his average down, but his power production is down too. Chipper will likely miss the 20 home run mark for the first time in his career. His batting average and slugging will be his worst marks since 2004 when Chipper only hit .248 and slugged .485, but he at least homered 30 times and drove in 96 runs that season.

Chipper has gotten so frustrated with himself that he is now talking about retirement. Chipper announced this week that if he struggles again next season, he will simply walk away. He has high standards for himself, and he is not willing to stick around and collect a paycheck. You have to respect him for that, especially after he just signed a three-year, $42 million extension in the off-season. How many guys have we seen stick around too long as their skills erode?

Chipper’s struggles are only part of the Braves’ offensive problem. Brian McCann has also struggled as of late. He has hit .238 in the months since August 1, and that includes a .381 mark over his last 5 games. I think Bobby Cox’s overuse of his All-Star catcher is showing.

One need only look at the Braves’ offensive leaders to see what they need to target in the off season. Brian McCann is the team leader in home runs (18) and RBI (79). Comparing those totals to the rest of the team leaders in the National League only shows that the Braves have a total lack of mashers in the middle of their lineup. McCann’s 18 home runs rank 15th out of 16 National League team leaders placing him ahead of only the injury-depleted New York Mets whose leaders (Wright, Sheffield) have only 10 home runs. McCann’s 79 RBIs rank him 12th out of 16 N.L. team leaders ranking him ahead of only Pittsburgh’s Andy LaRoche (52), New York’s David Wright (66), San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval (77), and Colorado’s Todd Helton (78). The Braves obviously need to add a thumper this off-season.

The only places on the field available to place the thumper are at first base or left field. Garret Anderson will likely not be re-signed, and it’s questionable whether the Braves would be willing to re-sign Adam LaRoche. The Braves have depth at starting pitcher (assuming the Braves and Tim Hudson mutually agree on his option for next season) and could trade one of those pitchers in a package deal for someone. Javier Vazquez is the most logical choice because he is signed through 2010 and can be traded to any team in a central or eastern division. A package deal involving Vazquez, first base prospect Freddie Freeman, and a lesser prospect might interest Milwaukee who may not be able to afford Prince Fielder after 2010. Vazquez will make $11.5 million in 2010 and Fielder will make $10.5 million. It’s just a thought.

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Stick a fork in the Braves. They are done.

The recent five-game losing streak (including a sweep at home to the Cincinnati Reds) put the final nails in the coffin of the team’s playoff hopes. The Braves are currently 2 games behind the second place Marlins and 8 games back of the first place Phillies in the N.L. East. They remain almost as far back (7.5 games back) in the Wild Card race. For the fourth consecutive season, the Braves face a third place or worse finish in the N.L. East.

It’s time for the Braves to throw in the towel. Here are some suggestions for the management going forward.

Shut Tommy Hanson down for the rest of the season. My previous post discussed his increased work load this season including his pre-season work in the Arizona Fall League. Save your future ace for next season and beyond.

Give Brian McCann more consistent days off. He has played in 101 of the last 110 games (93 starts). It’s time to give the team’s only perennial All-Star candidate some much needed rest.

Do the same for grizzled veteran Chipper Jones. He is on pace to play in more games this year than in any season since 2003.

Find more at-bats for Kelly Johnson. Since losing his starting job to Martin Prado coupled with a mid-season wrist injury, Kelly has struggled to find a consistent stroke at the plate. See if he has a spot on this roster moving forward.

Admit to the fans that you are playing for next season. If calling up Jason Heyward to play at AAA Gwinnett because they wanted to win the International League playoffs instead of having him contribute at the Major League level is any indication, perhaps they already have.

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